China Forecasts Strongest Recorded El Niño to Shape Winter and Spring Weather

China's weather authority says the most powerful El Niño event since monitoring began will noticeably shape the country's climate through this winter and into next spring, 新华网 reported on November 3.

Speaking at a China Meteorological Administration briefing in Beijing, National Climate Center deputy director Gao Rong said a super-strong El Niño took shape in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific in September 2026 and by October had grown into the strongest such event on record. It is expected to peak in late autumn or early winter, he said.

According to 新华网, the coming winter — running from late 2026 into early 2027 — is forecast to be warmer than usual nationwide overall, yet marked by more frequent cold waves and sharp swings in temperature. The north faces risks of severe cooling and heavy snowfall, while the south is exposed to bouts of low temperatures, rain, snow and freezing conditions.

Most of the country should see temperatures near or above the seasonal norm, with the exceptions of northeastern Inner Mongolia and western parts of the northeast, which are expected to run colder. The season is projected to follow a cold-then-warm pattern, with frequent episodes of steep temperature drops and rebounds in December and January.

Precipitation is expected to be above average across the country, 新华网 reports. Heavy snow is likely to hit many parts of the north, while the south should see notably more rain, with periodic freezing rain and snow forecast for southwestern East China, south-central Central China, northern South China and eastern parts of the southwest.

Forecasters and residents will be watching how the El Niño peak translates into actual cold surges as winter sets in.